Forecast Fumble is fantasy football for weather. Every afternoon you draft a lineup from the same board of cities as everyone else: 4 US starters, up to 2 World Tour starters, and 3 bench cities that sub in automatically if a starter can't be scored. Each city comes with the forecast high (official NWS for US cities) for tomorrow, which works like a betting line. Call it Hot, Cold, Calm (right on the forecast), or Either. The next morning the real temperatures come in, and your starters score points for beating the forecast. Each city has a handicap, the way point spreads even out matchups, so a calm city like Honolulu and a wild one like Hong Kong are fair picks. Play one Double Down a day on a Hot or Cold pick for 1.5x points. Each day's most volatile city is the 🃏 Wild Card of the Day: plus points ×2 (from Oct 18). Then take on friends in ghost matchups or leagues. No prizes, no money, no sign-up. Just you against the forecast.

How to play

The idea. Forecasters are good, but not perfect. Every day you get a board of cities with the official forecast high. Your job: guess which forecasts will hold and which will fumble. It's a free skill game. Nothing to win, just bragging rights.

1. Pick for each city

Every city card shows tomorrow's forecast high and a handicap (±°), which is how far that city's forecast usually misses. We compare the forecast with the actual high for that city's local day, in whole °F. Each pick is a prediction about that actual high:

Calm ☀️: the actual lands within one handicap of the forecast (the edges count). +0.5. Anything outside that scores 0. Calm can never lose points.
Hot 🔥: the actual comes in above the forecast by at least 3°F and at least 1.5 handicaps. +2 from there, +3 at 2 handicaps over (still at least 3°F) and +4 at 3 handicaps over.
Cold ❄️: the mirror image of Hot, below the forecast.
Hot or Cold penalties: Fumble −2 if it busts the other way by at least 6°F and at least 2 handicaps. Interception −1 if the forecast nails it, within 1°F (or within 0.3 handicaps for a very wild city). Any other result scores 0.
Either 🌀 (deke): a big miss in either direction, at the same distance where Hot or Cold start scoring. You get those points minus 1 (+1, +2 or +3). Either never goes negative: no fumble, no interception.

Tap the range line on any city card to see these numbers worked out for that city.

Worked example: forecast 60°, handicap ±2.5°

☀️ Calm: actual 58–62° scores +0.5. Anything else scores 0.
🔥 Hot: 64°+ scores +2 (needs 3°F and 1.5 × 2.5 = 3.75°F, so 4°F). 65°+ scores +3 (2 × 2.5 = 5°F). 68°+ scores +4 (3 × 2.5 = 7.5°F, so 8°F). 59–61° is an interception, −1. 54° or below is a fumble, −2. 55–58° and 62–63° score 0.
❄️ Cold: 56° or below +2, 55° or below +3, 52° or below +4. 59–61° −1. 66°+ −2.
🌀 Either: 56° or below, or 64°+ scores +1. 55°/65° or beyond scores +2. 52°/68° or beyond scores +3. Otherwise 0.

2. Double Down: once per day, on one Hot or Cold starter. That pick's points are multiplied by 1.5 either way: +2 becomes +3, and a −2 fumble becomes −3. Calm and Either can't be doubled. Bench cities can't be doubled. If the starter you doubled is replaced by a bench city, the Double Down moves to that sub.

🃏 Wild Card of the Day (from the Oct 18 board): the board's highest-handicap city, marked with a gold tag. Ties go alphabetically by city code.

Plus points ×2: Hot +3 → +6, Calm +0.5 → +1.
Fumbles and Interceptions unchanged: −2 stays −2.
No stacking: ×2 max. Double Down there adds no upside but still makes a loss ×1.5. Double Down elsewhere.
Counts double as a bench sub too.

🚨 Weather alerts: when a city's forecast is extreme (100°+, 95°+, 32° or below, or a 30°+ swing from low to high), the board shows a Weather Alert banner. Two or more makes it Rivalry Week weather. Just for fun, scoring is unchanged.

3. Starters and bench: your lineup is 6 starters and 3 bench cities. Only starters score. Any city can play in any slot, US or 🌍 World Tour. To change your lineup, tap ⬆ Start on a bench city, then pick the starter it replaces. 🌍 World Tour cities can't be moved in or out after their 5 PM PT lock; US cities can move until 9 PM PT. A Double Down stays with its city. If you bench the doubled city it stops counting, and it only ever counts on a starter's Hot or Cold pick. 🌍 World Tour starters are optional (blank = 0), and starting at least one with a pick earns the weekly badge. If a starter's forecast or reading is missing, your bench cities sub in, in your bench order (B1, B2, B3), and a Double Down on that starter moves to the sub.

4. Timing: 🌍 World Tour picks lock at 5 PM Pacific (00:00 UTC) the evening before; 🇺🇸 US starters and the bench stay open until 9 PM Pacific (04:00 UTC). A Double Down on a World Tour city is frozen at 5 PM; on a US city you can move it until 9 PM. You still need to press LOCK IN by 9 PM PT for the board to count. Each city is scored on its own local calendar day using official readings (NWS climate reports in the US, airport reports abroad). Results show the next morning (Pacific) once every city's day has ended.

Start a league in 3 steps

On My Card, tap Start a league and name it if you like.
Copy the invite link and text it to friends.
They make their picks, lock in, and join your table. Each friend gets their own invite link to send back.

Leagues live on your device only, with no accounts and no names beyond the league name. Friends' picks stay hidden until you lock in. Aim for 10 teams; more is fine.

5. Streaks, rulebooks, friends

Streak: lock a board every day. Freezes (hold up to 2, earn one every 7 days) cover missed days.
Results reveal: results flip in one city at a time, with near-miss callouts like “missed +2 by 1°!” or “dodged a Fumble by 2°”. Tap Replay to watch again.
Badges: 9 to collect on My Card, like Called the Blizzard, Perfect Calm, Pick-Six Survivor and the rare Fumbled in Phoenix. Kept on this device only.
Trash talk: after results, My Card writes a funny line about your day. Type a nickname if you like (default “You”) and copy it to the group chat.
Two rulebooks (we're testing both): v3.1 Classic ranks by points; v3.2 Daily 1v1 pits you against the Forecaster (who always picks Calm) for a W/L/T record over 2-week seasons. A missed day is a loss, except one "rain day" per season. Switch in Settings.
Challenges: after locking, send a challenge link. Your friend sees your picks only after locking their own board.
Leagues: every challenge you open joins your local league table (10-team target, more welcome). Share the league link so everyone sees the same table.

Worked example

City	Fcst	Normal miss	Actual	Pick	Points
San Diego	92°	±2.6°	97°	Hot, Double Down	miss +5 = 1.9× normal → +2 ×1.5 = +3
Boston	58°	±2.3°	63°	Either	+5 = 2.2× → Wild +3, deke −1 = +2
Phoenix	102°	±1.7°	102°	Calm	within normal = +0.5 (Calm can't be doubled)
Detroit	69°	±2.5°	75°	Cold	busted 6° the other way = 2.4× normal → fumble −2
Seattle	68°	±1.9°	67°	Hot	forecast nailed it = interception −1

Total +2.5. Against the Forecaster (Calm everywhere: Phoenix and Seattle within normal = +1.0), that's a W in v3.2. Normal-miss values are each city's recent typical forecast miss and are updated through the year.

Last updated October 16, 2026. Operated by Simple Freedom.